NEW DELHI: The current increase in Covid-19 infections may not lead to a second wave experienced by some nations as a
predicts cases ranging between 300,000 to 500,000 in the next 10 weeks.
The model sees most cases in the first three weeks of March. It estimates over 57% of the population in India has already been exposed to Covid-19 virus.
Though the scientists, working on this model, are waiting for confirmed data on recoveries, their preliminary findings indicate that India may get additional about 3-5 lakh of new confirmed cases by April.
“The number is rising. So, we are naturally expecting a peak which will be there sometime in the middle of next month and then it’ll start coming down again. There won’t be a sharp peak which we had seen earlier. The peak will be a very small one,” Manindra
, deputy director at IIT Kanpur, told TOI on Saturday.
Agrawal, who was involved with the national ‘super model’ initiative, said the infection among 57% of the population was “good enough” to avert a second wave kind of situation.
In classical epidemiology, the phrase ‘herd immunity’ refers to the level of susceptible population at which the number of infections reaches its maximum. “We, however, need data of 10 more days to be able to properly do the approximation,” said Agrawal.
The national ‘super model’ had in October predicted that the pandemic can be controlled by early 2021 with “minimal active symptomatic infections” in February, 2021.
Agrawal said, “If you recall our presentation in October, we had predicted that it will be completely under control provided we continue to observe the same precautions (practices of masking, disinfecting, tracing, and quarantine).”
“We had also shown an alternative scenario that if we stop observing precautions or if we do it half-way then what would happen. Very recently in February we are seeing further increase in contact rate,” said Agrawal in clear reference to a situation where
has seen the rise after opening of local trains and
has seen it due to further opening up and movement during recent festivals.